What will demand
need?
From cars to metals
The Battery materials page works through a chain: how many batteries Europe will build, what each battery is made of, and so how much raw material that takes. The Scenario slicer is set to Base case.
Stylised sketch: no real values.
Each bar is split by . Its tier, , means the source is licensed and can't be shared freely. Lesson 6 comes back to that.
Following a calculation across tiles
The tile says how many kg of each metal go into one kWh of battery.
| Chemistry | Cobalt | Graphite | Lithium | Manganese | Nickel |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NCA | 0.12 | 0.95 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| NMC811 | 0.08 | 0.95 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.66 |
| NMC622 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 0.17 | 0.53 |
The report also lists L(M)FP below these rows.
Multiply battery demand by intensity and you get for each metal. The units line up neatly: 1 GWh is a million kWh, so 1 GWh at 1 kg per kWh is a million kg, which is 1 kt.
Predict first: how much cobalt does 1 GWh of NMC811 cells need?
The biggest number isn't always the scarcest metal
| Commodity | Implied demand 2024 kt | Implied demand 2030 kt |
|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | 15.9 | 39.3 |
| Graphite | 136.4 | 563.4 |
| Lithium | 14.4 | 54.9 |
| Manganese | 13.5 | 40.6 |
| Total | 262.1 | 931.6 |
The report's total also includes nickel, in a row further down.
Predict first: why is graphite by far the largest figure?
Which tiles follow the scenario?
The Scenario slicer at the top right can switch away from the . Look for the words Base case in each tile's Basis line.
Predict first: you switch the scenario. Which of these tiles stays exactly the same?
A chain is as strong as its weakest stage
The widest tile on the page follows each metal along the , from mine to cell. Each cell says how much of the EU's need operating EU capacity meets today, and how many points announced projects would add.
| Commodity | Mine | Refined chemical | Precursor (pCAM) | Active material (CAM, anode) | Cell |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | 1% operating, +4 points announced | 19% operating, +5 points announced | 5% operating, +20 points announced | 8% operating, +30 points announced | 41% operating, +48 points announced |
| Graphite | 1% operating, +5 points announced | 0% operating, +7 points announced | 2% operating, +9 points announced | 41% operating, +48 points announced | |
| Lithium | 2% operating, +12 points announced | 1% operating, +18 points announced | 8% operating, +30 points announced | 41% operating, +48 points announced | |
| Manganese | 1% operating, nothing announced | 0% operating, +6 points announced | 5% operating, +20 points announced | 8% operating, +30 points announced | 41% operating, +48 points announced |
| Nickel | 7% operating, +2 points announced | 14% operating, +6 points announced | 5% operating, +20 points announced | 8% operating, +30 points announced | 41% operating, +48 points announced |
Predict first: for lithium, where is Europe's weakest link today?
Same-looking numbers, different measures
| Metal | Recycled share of implied demand 2030 | Regulation minimum 2031 | Regulation minimum 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cobalt | 9% | 16% | 26% |
| Lithium | 4% | 6% | 12% |
| Nickel | 6% | 6% | 15% |
The two right-hand columns are the EU for new batteries.
Predict first: nickel shows 6% against a 6% minimum. Is nickel on track?
The tiles at a glance
Three layers today
Follow the calculation across tiles. Check which tiles the scenario moves. Find the weakest stage.
Demand times intensity gives implied demand. Change the scenario and only the tiles with Base case in their Basis line move.